Welcome to week 4 of the fantasy football season.
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#1: Welcome to week 4 of the fantasy football season. Autor: zhangzk,
Poslato: Sre Jun 19, 2019 8:19 am
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Hopefully you’ve recorded at least one victory so far and can survive September with a .500 record or better. A good fantasy draft can get your team off to a fast start Youth Walter Payton Jerseys , but leagues are won and lost on the waiver wire every year. Also, get active in the trade market! If you’ve got a glaring weakness somewhere, look around for a trading partner. A couple of guys really established themselves as legitimate receiving options last week and they square off this Sunday. Tyler Boyd of the Bengals has posted two good weeks in a row and with the Bengals providing a lot of volume in the passing game, I think he’s a safe bet to keep that going. The Bengals travel to Atlanta who just saw rookie Calvin Ridley blow up last week against the Saints for 3 scores. You’re probably not going to get that effort from Ridley again but that’s two straight weeks he has been integral to that offensive attack. With injuries to Keanu Neal and Deion Jones on that Atlanta defense, the Falcons are going to be slinging it around the yard all year. I’m signing off on Boyd and Ridley as WR3 / Flex starts herein with the chance to be in that WR2 range. It’s also interesting to note that as we enter week 4, all 4 of the top rookie signal callers have now won their starting gigs. Sam Darnold won the job out of camp for the Jets and has predictably been up and down on an offense with limited weapons. Baker Mayfield came off the bench to help the Browns win their first game since 2016 against Darnold’s Jets last Thursday, and was named the starter this week. Josh Allen won his second start against the heavily favored Minnesota Vikings in a game that ruined survivor pools for most people (including me). Finally, Josh Rosen entered the game late last week to throw the ball at the Navy and Orange team a couple times as he tried to avoid decapitation by Khalil Mack. My general rule is that rookie QBs aren’t going to be particularly useful so avoid them, particularly when there are plenty of solid choices in established veterans. However, if you’re playing in a 2 QB league or you’re caught flat footed with an injury to Jimmy G, or you’re just looking for some upside, you may be dipping your toe in the water. My preference out of this group is probably Mayfield because I do believe there are good weapons in this offense and he seems fearless to throw the ball down the field. Rosen was my favorite coming out of the draft, but they need to shift their offensive philosophy if he’s going to be useful and I don’t think that’s likely. The Cardinals do have a few interesting matchups where they’ll likely be trailing early, which may force them to abandon their conservative approach and sling it. Related: keep an eye out for Christian Kirk. I’m not as sold on Darnold or Allen for this year, but there’s at least a good floor on Allen with his running ability. Again, if you’re dipping your toe into these waters Walter Payton Jerseys Stitched , it’s either out of desperation or curiosity – just don’t get too cute.Finally - I was a guest on the RB1 fantasy podcast this week and got a chance to talk about some start / sit options on a few games including the Bears / Bucs. Take a listen! As always, I can be found @gridironborn on the Twitter for last minute fantasy advice. Your turn – what’s on your mind as we close out September? Well, maybe the Vikings? But not really..."Spend any time reading or listening to draft coverage in the NFL, and you will quickly encounter the idea of a draft value trade charts. Essentially, the idea is that each draft pick has a certain value attached to it, and that when two teams want to trade picks, they consult a third-party reference, a chart, to figure out the general value of each selection.So far, this makes a lot of sense. However, talking heads, journalists, and bloggers (such as myself) frequently disagree about what chart should be used. There is the famed Jimmy Johnson chart—older than most of the players currently active in the NFL. There is also the Chase Stuart chart, which analytics fans will tell you is the “real” chart. It describes not what prices are paid for picks, but what (historically) the actual value is of each draft pick when compared to a metric called Career Average Value. Adherents of the Stuart chart point out that the Johnson chart privileges high picks far too much, that the fall-off is too steep Youth Chase Daniel Jerseys , and that the newer chart as far more reflective of what players and picks “are really worth.”There’s just one problem: the NFL clearly does not care, as these charts show [Link].In the first three rounds of the 2019 NFL draft, there were twenty-three trades involving only picks (no players). Fourteen of those trades saw the higher draft pick bought or sold for within 5% of the values described by the Johnson Chart. Nineteen of the trades (83%) saw the higher pick bought or sold for 10% of the Johnson values. Every trade falls within 20%. In other words, after all these years, the Johnson chart is not bad.How about the Chase Stuart chart? Well...exactly two trades fell within 5% of the Stuart chart’s proposed values. The Vikings gave the Lions the #81 pick in the draft for what turns out to be 97% of the Stuart chart’s values, and they also gave the Jets the #92 pick in the draft for about the same value (in this case, the moved down one spot to pick up a 7th-rounder). Add the Raiders’ trade with the Jaguars, and you have all three times the Stuart chart was within 10% of the values traded. Even with a generous margin of +/- 20%, only nine of the trades fall within Stuart’s proposed values. Interestingly, there is only one trade where Stuart’s values were closer than Johnson’s values, and that was the Lions-Vikings trade mentioned above. Interestingly, there are teams (like the Vikings) who are clearly willing to sell picks for less than Johnson book values. Those teams end up matching the Stuart model more closely, and they probably have a reason for offering these discounts.Every trade in the first two days of the 2019 NFL draft says that the team moving up overpaid by the Stuart model, and that’s because the Stuart model favors (heavily) delivered value. It points out that there is very little increase in actual value as teams move up the ladder, and so the Stuart model is always going to favor moving down. Up to a point, this is sound.Bears fans “in the know” thus have a good reason to be frustrated as GM Ryan Pace consistently sheds picks and gives up value in order to make sure he gets the exact player he wants. By moving up the current Chase Daniel Jerseys Stitched , he is defying historical trends that show (decisively) that he is making a mistake. On average, statistically, his approach will fail.However, NFL teams are not playing to win 9.7 games. They are playing to win each and every game. A player who gains 3.4 yards on a carry is a very marginal advantage over a player who gains 3.5 yards. Unless, of course, the team needs 3.45 yards to move the chains and that infamous index card comes out. There is not a lot of difference in marginal utility between a player who sacks the quarterback 54 times in a career than one who sacks the quarterback 55.5 times, unless those last 1.5 times come during a divisional game to clinch a playoff berth.NFL teams do, consistently, pay a premium in order to move up. Chase Stuart is 100% correct in thinking that the actual value they receive is not reflective of the prices they pay. However, NFL GMs consistently show that regardless of whether or not Stuart is correct about delivered value and its meaning, his chart is an abstraction. They don’t care. It’s probably time for fans, for pundits, and for draft gurus to accept that fact. Now the Rich Hill chart, on the other hand...(to be continued)
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